Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.251263 0.292085 0.336715 0.389031 0.448577 0.514137 0.591679
2025-11-23 0.175480 0.229291 0.294378 0.378429 0.483570 0.610179 0.773557
2025-11-30 0.146209 0.208092 0.288619 0.400010 0.548846 0.739435 1.000286
2025-12-07 0.116015 0.177861 0.263575 0.389282 0.566796 0.805982 1.149518
2025-12-14 0.093800 0.153743 0.241621 0.377322 0.578409 0.861511 1.285211
2025-12-21 0.077799 0.135581 0.224737 0.368957 0.592053 0.918555 1.425159
2025-12-28 0.068350 0.125848 0.218705 0.375201 0.626556 1.006995 1.615916
2026-01-04 0.061826 0.119738 0.217240 0.387780 0.671100 1.112972 1.839964
2026-01-11 0.055495 0.112853 0.213360 0.395488 0.707871 1.208983 2.054911
2026-01-18 0.049453 0.105471 0.207507 0.398810 0.737090 1.294447 2.258448
2026-01-25 0.043879 0.098046 0.200501 0.399011 0.760458 1.371362 2.452596
2026-02-01 0.038774 0.090707 0.192634 0.396540 0.778456 1.439960 2.636821
2026-02-08 0.033943 0.083271 0.183835 0.391703 0.792380 1.503753 2.819648
2026-02-15 0.028891 0.074512 0.171289 0.378234 0.789119 1.537341 2.953005
2026-02-22 0.027692 0.074245 0.176077 0.399575 0.853451 1.695999 3.317541
2026-03-01 0.023937 0.067304 0.165781 0.388839 0.854299 1.738484 3.475142
2026-03-08 0.020619 0.060807 0.155531 0.376891 0.851323 1.773094 3.619834
2026-03-15 0.017997 0.055585 0.147419 0.368534 0.854646 1.819469 3.788919
2026-03-22 0.016589 0.053340 0.145960 0.374772 0.888858 1.927896 4.082709
2026-03-29 0.015670 0.052286 0.147231 0.387338 0.937544 2.067968 4.445978
2026-04-05 0.014571 0.050513 0.146476 0.395038 0.976164 2.190129 4.780962
2026-04-12 0.013365 0.048195 0.144021 0.398356 1.005215 2.294418 5.086090
2026-04-19 0.012147 0.045599 0.140473 0.398557 1.027080 2.384926 5.368126